Odds of winning LOTTO 6aus49: probability of each tier
Exact probabilities for one line, independent of stakes and prizes. They are the same in every draw.
LOTTO 6aus49 prizes by tier
| Tier | Matches | Probability | Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 Matches + Superzahl | 1 in 139,838,160 | 0.000001 % |
| 2 | 6 Matches | 1 in 15,537,573 | 0.000006 % |
| 3 | 5 Matches + Superzahl | 1 in 542,008 | 0.000184 % |
| 4 | 5 Matches | 1 in 60,223 | 0.001660 % |
| 5 | 4 Matches + Superzahl | 1 in 10,324 | 0.009686 % |
| 6 | 4 Matches | 1 in 1,147 | 0.087176 % |
| 7 | 3 Matches + Superzahl | 1 in 567 | 0.176504 % |
| 8 | 3 Matches | 1 in 63 | 1.588536 % |
| 9 | 2 Matches + Superzahl | 1 in 76 | 1.323780 % |
| Chance of winning something | 1 in 31.4 | 3.19 % |
Probability per line under the current rules, calculated exactly. The prize for a tier is the share of stakes allocated to that tier divided by the number of winners; for jackpot tiers, the amount is rolled over to the next draw if nobody wins.
Multiple lines
With n different lines, the jackpot chance is multiplied by exactly n (the lines are mutually exclusive).
| Lines | Jackpot chance | Chance of winning |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 in 139,838,160 | 3.2 % |
| 2 | 1 in 69,919,080 | 6.3 % |
| 5 | 1 in 27,967,632 | 15.0 % |
| 10 | 1 in 13,983,816 | 27.7 % |
| 20 | 1 in 6,991,908 | 47.7 % |
| 50 | 1 in 2,796,763 | 80.2 % |
| 100 | 1 in 1,398,382 | 96.1 % |
Average wait
Playing one line per draw, this is the average time you wait for the first win in the tier: (104 draws per year)
| Tier | Draws | years |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 139,838,160 | 1,344,597.7 |
| 2 | 15,537,573 | 149,399.7 |
| 3 | 542,008 | 5,211.6 |
| 4 | 60,223 | 579.1 |
| 5 | 10,324 | 99.3 |
| 6 | 1,147 | 11.0 |
| 7 | 567 | 5.5 |
| 8 | 63 | 0.6 |
| 9 | 76 | 0.7 |
For comparison
A jackpot chance of 1 in 139,838,160 is roughly equivalent to getting heads 27 times in a row when tossing a coin.