Lottochaos

Analyses: observed versus expected

Each statistic on this page is shown next to the value you would expect if the draws were purely random. The expected values are calculated exactly (closed-form formulas over all 13,983,816 combinations), not simulated. The result in advance: everywhere, what we observe stays within the range of chance.

1404 draws · 04.05.2013 – 14.10.2026 · Exact expected values under the hypothesis of uniform 6-from-49 draws

How close together are the six numbers?

The linear span is the distance from the smallest to the largest number (end positions included). The circular span reads the numbers 1 to 49 on a circle where 49 touches 1: the draw 2, 3, 5, 46, 48, 49 is then no longer spread over 48 positions but concentrated on 9. The bars show the distribution of draws by span, observed and expected.

Linear span

Mean: observed 37.1, expected 36.7

Observed Expected
6–10 1 / 0.5
11–15 5 / 6.8
16–20 23 / 30.4
21–25 71 / 82.5
26–30 154 / 166.0
31–35 280 / 267.9
36–40 356 / 351.6
41–45 360 / 348.3
46–49 154 / 150.1

Circular span

Mean: observed 31.0, expected 30.7

Observed Expected
6–10 1 / 0.6
11–15 8 / 9.2
16–20 42 / 47.4
21–25 132 / 151.9
26–30 366 / 372.0
31–35 623 / 597.2
36–40 232 / 225.4
41–41 0 / 0.2

The tightest draws

A circular span of at most 12 has a probability of 0.16% for a random draw. We therefore expected 2.3 such draws; there were 4.

DateWinning numberscircularlinear
04.02.202329313334353799
14.12.20163334384243441212
02.03.20193841424648491212
16.07.20221517202223261212
25.10.20142223283031351414
13.06.20183461046481446
16.05.20203681147481446
03.07.2019237394245481547
01.01.20221013141516241515
17.02.20162426323538391616
09.04.201614383946471647
14.06.20172930323336441616

What carries over from the previous draw?

For each draw, we count how many of its six numbers were already in the immediately preceding draw. The expected distribution is hypergeometric: 6 drawn from 49, of which 6 are marked.

Exact repeats

Mean: observed 0.725, expected 0.735

Observed Expected
0 616 / 611.7
1 586 / 579.5
2 173 / 185.7
3 27 / 24.8
4–6 1 / 1.4

Neighbours of the previous draw

Average number of winning numbers that are direct neighbours (±1, circular) of a number in the previous draw, without having been drawn in it themselves.

1.265
Observed
1.251
Expected

The last draw contains no information about the next one. Replaying the latest numbers or their neighbours gives exactly the same chances as any other combination.

The slip as a heat map

The 49 numbers as on the play slip (seven rows of seven). The darker the cell, the more often the number was drawn. The expected value is the same for all; the differences are the normal spread of a binomial distribution.

All time

1404 draws · Expected: 171.9 / Number · min 143, max 198

1186216531864170518261967185
816591721017411187121621317314154
15174161861716118176191982017521147
22176231592416425187261722716228174
29189301873117632162331753414735159
36169371823815839165401624117542174
43169441844514346163471734817449170

Last 100 draws

100 draws · Expected: 12.2 / Number · min 6, max 23

1821031449511614718
812911101111141291314148
15181614178181119122023218
229231124132514261327112820
29143012318321833143463512
36103722388392140841104211
4310441545746947948134915

The gap between the rarest and the most frequent number looks large, but it is exactly what you expect from 49 independent counts. Over the last 100 draws the relative spread is even larger because the sample is smaller.

How long does a number stay absent?

For each number we measure the gap in draws between two appearances. If the draws are independent, this gap follows a geometric distribution with probability 6/49 ≈ 12.2% per draw: mean 8.2, and long absences are not rare, they are the rule.

8375 gaps measured · Mean: observed 8.13, expected 8.17

Observed Expected
1 1017 / 1,025.5
2 880 / 899.9
3–4 1507 / 1,482.8
5–7 1646 / 1,610.2
8–10 1102 / 1,088.2
11–15 1072 / 1,087.8
16–20 529 / 566.1
21–30 453 / 448.0
31–40 123 / 121.3
41+ 46 / 45.1

The longest absence in the data is 85 draws. The probability that a given number stays absent that long is 0.00%; with 49 numbers it is bound to happen eventually. The longest current absence is 27 draws. A number that has been absent for a long time is therefore not "due": the balls have no memory.

My combination

Enter six numbers: has this combination been drawn before? Which draws came closest?

Everything runs in your browser; nothing is stored or sent. That a combination has never been drawn is normal: out of 13,983,816 possible combinations only a tiny fraction has ever come up.

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