Lottochaos

LOTTO 6aus49: AI prediction and backtest – what are "statistical" lines worth?

Two honest experiments on the real draws: we compare random Quick Pick lines with "hot" lines built from the most frequent numbers, and we let a learning algorithm (k nearest neighbours) predict each draw, always using only the data known before the draw. Both methods are compared with the exact expectation of pure chance.

Backtest: Quick Pick lines vs hot lines (12 months)

For each of the 105 draws from 15.10.2025 to 14.10.2026, each group plays 10 lines: random Quick Pick versus lines built from the 15 most drawn numbers over the previous 100 draws. The Superzahl are random in both groups so that only the main numbers are compared. 1,050 lines per group in total.

MatchesQuick PickHotExpected by chance
0440424457.8
1442438433.7
2155161139.0
3132618.5
4011.0
5000.0
6000.0

Wins by tier

TierMatchesQuick PickHotExpected by chance
16 Matches + Superzahl000.00
26 Matches000.00
35 Matches + Superzahl000.00
45 Matches000.02
54 Matches + Superzahl000.10
64 Matches010.92
73 Matches + Superzahl011.85
83 Matches132516.68
92 Matches + Superzahl231513.90

Result: the difference between the two groups is not statistically significant (chi² = 5.33, p = 0.149). It stays within what pure chance produces for a sample of this size.

AI prediction (k nearest neighbours)

For each draw, the model looks for the 7 past moments whose preceding 3 draws most resembled the current ones and plays the numbers most often drawn next. It is reapplied after every draw and never sees the future. 300 draws evaluated from 02.12.2023 to 14.10.2026.

Matches per prediction

ObservedExpected
0 Matches120 / 130.8
1 Matches138 / 123.9
2 Matches40 / 39.7
3 Matches2 / 5.3
4 Matches0 / 0.3
5 Matches0 / 0.0
6 Matches0 / 0.0

Average: 0.747 matches per prediction – chance gives 0.735.

Deviation from the expectation of chance: chi² = 2.73, p = 0.255. The model hits exactly as often as numbers picked at random.

Model line for the next draw

21930313242

For entertainment only: this line has exactly the same chance as any other.

Latest predictions

DatePredictionMatches
14.10.2026 31519354047 0
10.10.2026 3514333944 0
07.10.2026 71528293340 1
30.09.2026 111319323347 0
23.09.2026 6927314144 1
19.09.2026 2813152835 1
12.09.2026 3620304249 1
05.09.2026 101431354449 1
02.09.2026 131635394449 1
29.08.2026 51014333742 0
22.08.2026 81013162047 1
19.08.2026 51820283744 0
15.08.2026 152431434449 1
12.08.2026 41314202542 1
08.08.2026 1416263143 1
05.08.2026 31315202643 1
01.08.2026 56891026 0
29.07.2026 152830313537 0
25.07.2026 6911262841 0
22.07.2026 71316192338 0
18.07.2026 678204244 0
15.07.2026 203233424348 1
11.07.2026 5914192043 1
04.07.2026 6814212324 0
01.07.2026 91625274046 0
27.06.2026 91516202548 0
24.06.2026 111213223237 0
20.06.2026 1710173546 1
13.06.2026 5915212829 0
10.06.2026 3510324648 0
06.06.2026 51926273849 0
30.05.2026 91123293739 0

How it works

A nearest-neighbour model looks for points in time whose last draws resembled the current ones and picks the numbers that followed most often. It is reapplied draw by draw without looking into the future; a backtest additionally compares Quick Picks with lines made of frequent numbers.

Example

For 6 from 49, 0.7 matches per line are expected on average; the model lands exactly there.

Limitations

No model can predict random draws. The page shows this transparently with a chi-squared test.

Frequently asked questions about this tool

Can AI predict lottery numbers?
No. With independent, uniformly distributed draws there is no pattern a model could learn.
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