Odds of winning Loto: probability of each tier
Exact probabilities for one line, independent of stakes and prizes. They are the same in every draw.
Loto prizes by tier
| Tier | Matches | Probability | Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 Matches + Lucky number (Chance) | 1 in 19,068,840 | 0.000005 % |
| 2 | 5 Matches | 1 in 2,118,760 | 0.000047 % |
| 3 | 4 Matches + Lucky number (Chance) | 1 in 86,677 | 0.001154 % |
| 4 | 4 Matches | 1 in 9,631 | 0.010383 % |
| 5 | 3 Matches + Lucky number (Chance) | 1 in 2,016 | 0.049610 % |
| 6 | 3 Matches | 1 in 224 | 0.446488 % |
| 7 | 2 Matches + Lucky number (Chance) | 1 in 144 | 0.694536 % |
| 8 | 2 Matches | 1 in 16 | 6.250826 % |
| 9 | 0–1 Matches + Lucky number (Chance) | 1 in 11 | 9.254695 % |
| Chance of winning something | 1 in 6.0 | 16.71 % |
Probability per line under the current rules, calculated exactly. The prize for a tier is the share of stakes allocated to that tier divided by the number of winners; for jackpot tiers, the amount is rolled over to the next draw if nobody wins.
Multiple lines
With n different lines, the jackpot chance is multiplied by exactly n (the lines are mutually exclusive).
| Lines | Jackpot chance | Chance of winning |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 in 19,068,840 | 16.7 % |
| 2 | 1 in 9,534,420 | 30.6 % |
| 5 | 1 in 3,813,768 | 59.9 % |
| 10 | 1 in 1,906,884 | 83.9 % |
| 20 | 1 in 953,442 | 97.4 % |
| 50 | 1 in 381,377 | 100.0 % |
| 100 | 1 in 190,688 | 100.0 % |
Average wait
Playing one line per draw, this is the average time you wait for the first win in the tier: (156 draws per year)
| Tier | Draws | years |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19,068,840 | 122,236.2 |
| 2 | 2,118,760 | 13,581.8 |
| 3 | 86,677 | 555.6 |
| 4 | 9,631 | 61.7 |
| 5 | 2,016 | 12.9 |
| 6 | 224 | 1.4 |
| 7 | 144 | 0.9 |
| 8 | 16 | 0.1 |
| 9 | 11 | 0.1 |
For comparison
A jackpot chance of 1 in 19,068,840 is roughly equivalent to getting heads 24 times in a row when tossing a coin.