Lottochaos

Analyses: observed versus expected

Each statistic on this page is shown next to the value you would expect if the draws were purely random. The expected values are calculated exactly (closed-form formulas over all 1,906,884 combinations), not simulated. The result in advance: everywhere, what we observe stays within the range of chance.

1087 draws · 06.11.2019 – 14.10.2026 · Exact expected values under the hypothesis of uniform 5-from-49 draws

How close together are the five numbers?

The linear span is the distance from the smallest to the largest number (end positions included). The circular span reads the numbers 1 to 49 on a circle where 49 touches 1: the draw 4, 5, 7, 47, 49 is then no longer spread over 46 positions but concentrated on 10. The bars show the distribution of draws by span, observed and expected.

Linear span

Mean: observed 34.1, expected 34.3

Observed Expected
5–9 1 / 1.7
10–14 17 / 13.7
15–19 53 / 43.6
20–24 91 / 91.5
25–29 149 / 150.7
30–34 213 / 207.4
35–39 235 / 240.5
40–44 207 / 221.8
45–49 121 / 116.2

Circular span

Mean: observed 28.2, expected 28.3

Observed Expected
5–9 1 / 2.0
10–14 21 / 18.0
15–19 71 / 65.5
20–24 151 / 161.9
25–29 322 / 320.7
30–34 414 / 404.0
35–39 107 / 114.9
40–40 0 / 0.0

The tightest draws

A circular span of at most 10 has a probability of 0.32% for a random draw. We therefore expected 3.5 such draws; there were 2.

DateWinning numberscircularlinear
11.03.2026101214161899
17.05.20259121314181010
27.03.20218101116181111
24.06.2024164547481148
30.06.20258101217181111
25.11.201933353841441212
21.12.202211121521221212
02.01.20231394145491249
22.07.202331333637421212
10.12.202533343539441212
02.11.202031333842431313
17.02.202129313435411313

What carries over from the previous draw?

For each draw, we count how many of its five numbers were already in the immediately preceding draw. The expected distribution is hypergeometric: 5 drawn from 49, of which 5 are marked.

Exact repeats

Mean: observed 0.507, expected 0.510

Observed Expected
0 620 / 618.5
1 384 / 386.6
2 79 / 75.4
3 3 / 5.4
4–5 0 / 0.1

Neighbours of the previous draw

Average number of winning numbers that are direct neighbours (±1, circular) of a number in the previous draw, without having been drawn in it themselves.

0.860
Observed
0.891
Expected

The last draw contains no information about the next one. Replaying the latest numbers or their neighbours gives exactly the same chances as any other combination.

The slip as a heat map

The 49 numbers in rows of ten. The darker the cell, the more often the number was drawn. The expected value is the same for all; the differences are the normal spread of a binomial distribution.

All time

1087 draws · Expected: 110.9 / Number · min 87, max 133

193298312041115121612271198112911310113
119712114131191497151241610817112181041910720100
21108221222310424122251092611927103281162910930128
3113332116339334111351143611537103381213910540101
41115421134387441094511346110471124810849112

Last 100 draws

100 draws · Expected: 10.2 / Number · min 4, max 17

172731041151269710812981014
1141271312148151216141791817199206
2113221323122410259261027728729103017
31143213336341035113614371038163910407
41114254364464511461147948144910

The gap between the rarest and the most frequent number looks large, but it is exactly what you expect from 49 independent counts. Over the last 100 draws the relative spread is even larger because the sample is smaller.

How long does a number stay absent?

For each number we measure the gap in draws between two appearances. If the draws are independent, this gap follows a geometric distribution with probability 5/49 ≈ 10.2% per draw: mean 9.8, and long absences are not rare, they are the rule.

5386 gaps measured · Mean: observed 9.72, expected 9.80

Observed Expected
1 551 / 549.6
2 488 / 493.5
3–4 852 / 841.1
5–7 988 / 966.3
8–10 694 / 699.7
11–15 744 / 764.0
16–20 442 / 446.1
21–30 417 / 412.5
31–40 141 / 140.6
41+ 69 / 72.7

The longest absence in the data is 115 draws. The probability that a given number stays absent that long is 0.00%; with 49 numbers it is bound to happen eventually. The longest current absence is 33 draws. A number that has been absent for a long time is therefore not "due": the balls have no memory.

My combination

Enter five numbers: has this combination been drawn before? Which draws came closest?

Everything runs in your browser; nothing is stored or sent. That a combination has never been drawn is normal: out of 1,906,884 possible combinations only a tiny fraction has ever come up.

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