Odds of winning TOTO: probability of each tier
Exact probabilities for one line, independent of stakes and prizes. They are the same in every draw.
TOTO prizes by tier
| Tier | Matches | Probability | Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 Matches | 1 in 13,983,816 | 0.000007 % |
| 2 | 5 Matches + Additional number | 1 in 2,330,636 | 0.000043 % |
| 3 | 5 Matches | 1 in 55,491 | 0.001802 % |
| 4 | 4 Matches + Additional number | 1 in 22,197 | 0.004505 % |
| 5 | 4 Matches | 1 in 1,083 | 0.092357 % |
| 6 | 3 Matches + Additional number | 1 in 812 | 0.123142 % |
| 7 | 3 Matches | 1 in 61 | 1.641898 % |
| Chance of winning something | 1 in 53.7 | 1.86 % |
Probability per line under the current rules, calculated exactly. The prize for a tier is the share of stakes allocated to that tier divided by the number of winners; for jackpot tiers, the amount is rolled over to the next draw if nobody wins.
Multiple lines
With n different lines, the jackpot chance is multiplied by exactly n (the lines are mutually exclusive).
| Lines | Jackpot chance | Chance of winning |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 in 13,983,816 | 1.9 % |
| 2 | 1 in 6,991,908 | 3.7 % |
| 5 | 1 in 2,796,763 | 9.0 % |
| 10 | 1 in 1,398,382 | 17.1 % |
| 20 | 1 in 699,191 | 31.4 % |
| 50 | 1 in 279,676 | 61.0 % |
| 100 | 1 in 139,838 | 84.8 % |
Average wait
Playing one line per draw, this is the average time you wait for the first win in the tier: (104 draws per year)
| Tier | Draws | years |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13,983,816 | 134,459.8 |
| 2 | 2,330,636 | 22,410.0 |
| 3 | 55,491 | 533.6 |
| 4 | 22,197 | 213.4 |
| 5 | 1,083 | 10.4 |
| 6 | 812 | 7.8 |
| 7 | 61 | 0.6 |
For comparison
A jackpot chance of 1 in 13,983,816 is roughly equivalent to getting heads 24 times in a row when tossing a coin.