Odds of winning SA Lotto: probability of each tier
Exact probabilities for one line, independent of stakes and prizes. They are the same in every draw.
SA Lotto prizes by tier
| Tier | Matches | Probability | Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 Matches | 1 in 20,358,520 | 0.000005 % |
| 2 | 5 Matches + Bonus ball | 1 in 3,393,087 | 0.000029 % |
| 3 | 5 Matches | 1 in 75,402 | 0.001326 % |
| 4 | 4 Matches + Bonus ball | 1 in 30,161 | 0.003316 % |
| 5 | 4 Matches | 1 in 1,371 | 0.072942 % |
| 6 | 3 Matches + Bonus ball | 1 in 1,028 | 0.097257 % |
| 7 | 2 Matches + Bonus ball | 1 in 96 | 1.045508 % |
| 8 | 3 Matches | 1 in 72 | 1.394011 % |
| Chance of winning something | 1 in 38.2 | 2.61 % |
Probability per line under the current rules, calculated exactly. The prize for a tier is the share of stakes allocated to that tier divided by the number of winners; for jackpot tiers, the amount is rolled over to the next draw if nobody wins.
Multiple lines
With n different lines, the jackpot chance is multiplied by exactly n (the lines are mutually exclusive).
| Lines | Jackpot chance | Chance of winning |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 in 20,358,520 | 2.6 % |
| 2 | 1 in 10,179,260 | 5.2 % |
| 5 | 1 in 4,071,704 | 12.4 % |
| 10 | 1 in 2,035,852 | 23.3 % |
| 20 | 1 in 1,017,926 | 41.1 % |
| 50 | 1 in 407,170 | 73.4 % |
| 100 | 1 in 203,585 | 92.9 % |
Average wait
Playing one line per draw, this is the average time you wait for the first win in the tier: (104 draws per year)
| Tier | Draws | years |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 20,358,520 | 195,755.0 |
| 2 | 3,393,087 | 32,625.8 |
| 3 | 75,402 | 725.0 |
| 4 | 30,161 | 290.0 |
| 5 | 1,371 | 13.2 |
| 6 | 1,028 | 9.9 |
| 7 | 96 | 0.9 |
| 8 | 72 | 0.7 |
For comparison
A jackpot chance of 1 in 20,358,520 is roughly equivalent to getting heads 24 times in a row when tossing a coin.