Odds of winning SA PowerBall: probability of each tier
Exact probabilities for one line, independent of stakes and prizes. They are the same in every draw.
SA PowerBall prizes by tier
| Tier | Matches | Probability | Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 Matches + PowerBall | 1 in 33,900,160 | 0.000003 % |
| 2 | 5 Matches | 1 in 2,260,011 | 0.000044 % |
| 3 | 4 Matches + PowerBall | 1 in 150,667 | 0.000664 % |
| 4 | 4 Matches | 1 in 10,044 | 0.009956 % |
| 5 | 3 Matches + PowerBall | 1 in 3,424 | 0.029203 % |
| 6 | 3 Matches | 1 in 228 | 0.438051 % |
| 7 | 2 Matches + PowerBall | 1 in 239 | 0.418582 % |
| 8 | 1 Matches + PowerBall | 1 in 46 | 2.197556 % |
| 9 | 0 Matches + PowerBall | 1 in 28 | 3.603992 % |
| Chance of winning something | 1 in 14.9 | 6.70 % |
Probability per line under the current rules, calculated exactly. The prize for a tier is the share of stakes allocated to that tier divided by the number of winners; for jackpot tiers, the amount is rolled over to the next draw if nobody wins.
Multiple lines
With n different lines, the jackpot chance is multiplied by exactly n (the lines are mutually exclusive).
| Lines | Jackpot chance | Chance of winning |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 in 33,900,160 | 6.7 % |
| 2 | 1 in 16,950,080 | 12.9 % |
| 5 | 1 in 6,780,032 | 29.3 % |
| 10 | 1 in 3,390,016 | 50.0 % |
| 20 | 1 in 1,695,008 | 75.0 % |
| 50 | 1 in 678,003 | 96.9 % |
| 100 | 1 in 339,002 | 99.9 % |
Average wait
Playing one line per draw, this is the average time you wait for the first win in the tier: (104 draws per year)
| Tier | Draws | years |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 33,900,160 | 325,963.1 |
| 2 | 2,260,011 | 21,730.9 |
| 3 | 150,667 | 1,448.7 |
| 4 | 10,044 | 96.6 |
| 5 | 3,424 | 32.9 |
| 6 | 228 | 2.2 |
| 7 | 239 | 2.3 |
| 8 | 46 | 0.4 |
| 9 | 28 | 0.3 |
For comparison
A jackpot chance of 1 in 33,900,160 is roughly equivalent to getting heads 25 times in a row when tossing a coin.