Lottochaos

Analyses: observed versus expected

Each statistic on this page is shown next to the value you would expect if the draws were purely random. The expected values are calculated exactly (closed-form formulas over all 20,358,520 combinations), not simulated. The result in advance: everywhere, what we observe stays within the range of chance.

39 draws · 03.06.2026 – 14.10.2026 · Exact expected values under the hypothesis of uniform 6-from-52 draws

How close together are the six numbers?

The linear span is the distance from the smallest to the largest number (end positions included). The circular span reads the numbers 1 to 52 on a circle where 52 touches 1: the draw 2, 3, 5, 49, 51, 52 is then no longer spread over 51 positions but concentrated on 9. The bars show the distribution of draws by span, observed and expected.

Linear span

Mean: observed 38.9, expected 38.9

Observed Expected
6–10 0 / 0.0
11–15 0 / 0.1
16–20 2 / 0.6
21–25 1 / 1.8
26–30 2 / 3.6
31–35 8 / 6.0
36–40 8 / 8.4
41–45 8 / 9.6
46–50 9 / 7.6
51–52 1 / 1.3

Circular span

Mean: observed 32.1, expected 32.5

Observed Expected
6–10 0 / 0.0
11–15 0 / 0.2
16–20 2 / 1.0
21–25 1 / 3.1
26–30 10 / 7.6
31–35 18 / 14.4
36–40 7 / 12.1
41–44 1 / 0.8

The tightest draws

A circular span of at most 12 has a probability of 0.12% for a random draw. We therefore expected 0.0 such draws; there were 0.

DateWinning numberscircularlinear
18.07.20261518212229321818
08.07.20261520212829342020
15.08.2026615202125302525
24.06.2026416174449502647
03.06.2026228454951522751
17.06.2026112192627282828
12.09.2026356732512849
27.06.202639101323472945
22.07.20261114192133392929
06.06.20261112354445463036
04.07.2026317404244523050
29.07.2026310141826493047

What carries over from the previous draw?

For each draw, we count how many of its six numbers were already in the immediately preceding draw. The expected distribution is hypergeometric: 6 drawn from 52, of which 6 are marked.

Exact repeats

Mean: observed 0.684, expected 0.692

Observed Expected
0 16 / 17.5
1 18 / 15.4
2 4 / 4.6
3 0 / 0.6
4–6 0 / 0.0

Neighbours of the previous draw

Average number of winning numbers that are direct neighbours (±1, circular) of a number in the previous draw, without having been drawn in it themselves.

1.132
Observed
1.145
Expected

The last draw contains no information about the next one. Replaying the latest numbers or their neighbours gives exactly the same chances as any other combination.

The slip as a heat map

The 52 numbers in rows of ten. The darker the cell, the more often the number was drawn. The expected value is the same for all; the differences are the normal spread of a binomial distribution.

All time

39 draws · Expected: 4.5 / Number · min 0, max 10

132739455365768291105
115125136143155162176184197204
215228237244254265277287296302
312327333343356362375385392402
410424434444455465474484493503
5110523

Last 100 draws

39 draws · Expected: 4.5 / Number · min 0, max 10

132739455365768291105
115125136143155162176184197204
215228237244254265277287296302
312327333343356362375385392402
410424434444455465474484493503
5110523

The gap between the rarest and the most frequent number looks large, but it is exactly what you expect from 52 independent counts. Over the last 100 draws the relative spread is even larger because the sample is smaller.

How long does a number stay absent?

For each number we measure the gap in draws between two appearances. If the draws are independent, this gap follows a geometric distribution with probability 6/52 ≈ 11.5% per draw: mean 8.7, and long absences are not rare, they are the rule.

183 gaps measured · Mean: observed 6.72, expected 8.67

Observed Expected
1 26 / 21.1
2 26 / 18.7
3–4 36 / 31.1
5–7 25 / 34.5
8–10 32 / 23.9
11–15 22 / 24.6
16–20 9 / 13.3
21–30 7 / 11.1
31–40 0 / 3.3
41+ 0 / 1.4

The longest absence in the data is 30 draws. The probability that a given number stays absent that long is 2.86%; with 52 numbers it is bound to happen eventually. The longest current absence is 31 draws. A number that has been absent for a long time is therefore not "due": the balls have no memory.

My combination

Enter six numbers: has this combination been drawn before? Which draws came closest?

Everything runs in your browser; nothing is stored or sent. That a combination has never been drawn is normal: out of 20,358,520 possible combinations only a tiny fraction has ever come up.

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